War

Signs are pointing towards resumption of hostilities between Rangoon and its Wa allies, according to Shan, Wa and Thai border sources.

"A battalion commander who left Tachilek to attend a meeting in Mongyawn for a few days since the first week of August isn't back yet," said a Shan trader in the twin city of Mae Sai yesterday. "Later on 9 August, we saw some ten trucks reportedly carrying a number of officers coming from the direction of Mongyawn and going up in the direction of Kengtung."

Thai military sources confirmed the news saying Panghsang, the Wa capital on the Chinese border, had called a crisis meeting. "This is the second emergency meeting within one month," said a Thai colonel in Chiangrai.

The first emergency meeting, held on 7 July, had ended with a resolution to defer the Drug Free Year from 2005 to 2007.

The report coincided with questions from a Wa source in 9 August asking S.H.A.N. whether it was true Gen Than Shwe had sacked Gen Khin Nyunt, considered the Was' staunchest ally among the Top Trio, and whether the Burmese recent buildup in the north was to strike Panghsang.

According to a source in Rangoon, 30,000 troops have been deployed to attack Wa positions.

"One hard line Rangoon faction is seriously considering the resumption of fighting with the ceasefire armies -- particularly with the United Wa State Army (hoping the move) would project the image of Rangoon fighting an anti-drug war against narco-terrorist armies and thus help distract international attention from their dark deeds, vis-a-vis The Lady and from the proposed roadmap," reported Chao Tzang Yawnghwe, quoting a "reliable information".

The only thing that stands between war and continued ceasefire, apart from China's forces along the border, might be Gen Khin Nyunt, and no one is sure how long he can block "this dangerous move," added Chao Tzang.

Sources at the same time are unsure who the hardliners are. "Among the Top Three, the only one we can talk to is Gen Khin Nyunt,"said a ceasefire commander. "Gen Maung Aye has always been at odds with us especially with the Wa. As for Gen Than Shwe, it is doubtful if we are still in his radar."

The upcoming meeting between leaders ceasefire groups and Gen Khin Nyunt on Thursday, 14 August, will probably decide whether the present truce pacts still have a chance, concludes a Thai border watcher.