ONE WORD describes Burma: dismay. Dismay at the appalling rule by the generals. Dismay at the awful state of the economy. Now add to that dismay at the junta's unwillingness to start substantive talks with the opposition. Indeed, the United Nations special envoy, Razali Ismail, last week uncharacteristically said before leaving on his 9th visit to the country that he might quit if he determines that prospects for progress are scant. It needn't be this way.

When the military released Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in May, it wasn't because this was really the decent thing to do. When it allowed Miss Suu Kyi the liberty to travel outside Rangoon, it wasn't because it finally began to appreciate the idea of free movement. And when it allowed Miss Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy, once more to run her party, the generals did not do so out of an appreciation for freedom of association.

All this the junta did for one reason and towards one end. The Burmese economy is broken and no significant amount of aid or flows of investment that could make a difference will come without the generals making accommodations that cut away some of their odiousness. In return, Miss Suu Kyi was expected to reciprocate by relaxing her stance towards foreign aid. This she did, and in other ways as well made it possible for Japan's foreign minister to pay a visit. The next step is the big one--for more aid to come on tap.

This is the key to pressing the junta. For this is the prize for which it made all its concessions, and is the only end that will convince it to take the next step--movement towards reforms that establish liberty for Burmese, as opposed to a few freedoms granted ad hoc. If there is only one thing the junta wants, keep it out of reach until the generals agree to a road map towards reform.

Times have changed since 1990, when the NLD's election victory was snatched from them. Today, it is not unreasonable to expect the military to at least grudgingly cooperate with the NLD. This means the outside world has leverage. Which is perhaps what Mr. Razali worked when he publicly mulled resigning--which would have put paid to hopes on both sides. But returning from Rangoon, he said he wouldn't quit after all. Moreover, he let on that he had asked the junta to release 200 political prisoners before his next visit in January. Mr. Razali may be very canny indeed about the leverage he holds for ending dismay with Burma.