Burmese Games

The military junta trades on people's hopes

IT WAS GOOD to hear Burma's democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi say that substantive talks with the country's military junta will start "within weeks." Nothing can be accomplished without the two sides talking. However, we'd caution against premature jubilation.

Certainly, the junta realizes that it risks dissatisfaction boiling over if economic stagnation is unrelieved by increased aid and real overseas investment. This understanding has been the basis of its quid pro quo with Miss Suu Kyi: first releasing her from house arrest, and then allowing her some leeway to travel. In return, Miss Suu Kyi has softened her opposition to aid and, apparently, foreign business contacts, though still rightly holding out for the release of all political prisoners.

But here, we're beginning to suspect the thugs in Rangoon to be unreformed. To be sure, they've released a few prisoners, notably before the United Nations envoy's recent trip to Rangoon and 14 more after Miss Suu Kyi's remarks on talks. But by only releasing political detainees in drips, the ones left behind are the junta's biggest bargaining chips. It doesn't take a cynic to see that in this is hardly an orderly plan for establishing democracy.

In fact, can it be that this was never really on the cards? That the junta would always keep the prize just out of reach and a few politicians still locked up to wrangle more concessions? We hate being so suspicious, so we hope to be proved wrong and that the generals aren't after all playing a game of survival with the hopes of the Burmese people.

Source : Far Eastern Economic Review

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