Signs of Breakthrough Pick up, Scepticism Lingers

Larry Jagan

Mizzima News via IPS

Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung's remarks that dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be freed soon and that the constitution-writing process will be restarted have raised hopes for a breakthrough, but there is little real evidence yet of genuine progress in Burma's political deadlock.

BANGKOK, Feb 11 (IPS) - ”Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party, and conduct normal political activities before the national convention convenes,” Win Aung told journalists at a weekend regional meeting in the southern Thai city of Phuket.

”I cannot say exactly when the national convention will start, but I can say it will be in 2004, and it won't be late in the year,” said Win Aung. But he hinted strongly that it would probably be held in June or July.

Win Aung also privately told his Thai counterpart, Surakiart Sathirathai, that the convention would start sometime in June, according to Thai officials.

But the scepticism that greets his statements if also reflected in remarks by some diplomats. As one senior Asian diplomat in Rangoon told IPS, ”If the Burmese regime really wants us to believe them, it's time for deeds, not just words.''

At the same time, there may be some further tentative steps in the direction of change in the next few weeks.

For instance, two more senior members of Aung San Suu Kyi's party -- U Aung Shwe and U Lwin, who are currently under house arrest -- may be freed. The other senior member of the NLD leadership -- U Tin Oo -- may be transferred to Rangoon from the prison he is being held at in the north-west of the country.

Win Aung also said Suu Kyi's political party, which won majority of the votes in the election, will be allowed to function normally and to reopen its offices in the lead-up to opening of the national convention.

This was all part of the on-going confidence-building between the two sides in preparation for the start of the convention, according to the foreign minister.

In August, Burma's Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt announced plans to reconvene the national convention to draw up the guidelines for a new constitution when he outlined his seven-stage 'road map to multi-party democracy'. The national convention is the first stage of this process.

”Everyone, including the political parties will be involved in the political process through the National Convention,” said Win Aung. ”There is no foundation for the exclusion of the National League for Democracy -- it is still a legal political party,” he said.

But because the NLD walked out of the convention in November 1995, Burma's military leaders insist it up to the NLD to ask to be return to the convention. For weeks now, Burmese government officials have been hinting that the government is talking to Aung San Suu Kyi, including discussing participating in the national convention. Pro-democracy activists in Rangoon though dismiss this suggestion as being out of hand.

”We working on creating a good atmosphere between us,” said Win Aung. ”Before we fought, now we talk,” he added. But he declined to reveal what the two sides were discussing or whom the opposition leader was meeting from the government.

”There is good, regular contact between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese government,” said the Thai foreign ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow.

Last month, the Thai foreign minister told journalists that the level of contact between two sides had recently been raised significantly. ”It is no longer the military liaison officer Brigadier General Than Tun,” he said.

It seems certain now that the deputy head of military intelligence Maj Gen Kyaw Win is conducting the talks with Aung San Suu Kyi. He met her for the first time in the middle of December, according to Burmese military sources.

Since then, he and the education minister are believed to have continued to meet her -- though not regularly. Diplomats in Rangoon believe that this may mean that the country's top leader Senior Gen Than Shwe is taking a closer interest in the national reconciliation process, as both men are known to be loyal to him.

Diplomats dealing with Rangoon throughout the region are cautious about the extent of contact between the two sides.

”The Burmese generals are obviously on a charm-offensive again,” said an Asian diplomat who deals with Burma. ”Win Aung's performance in Phuket (at the summit meeting of south and south east Asian countries) -- talking freely to journalists and giving the impression that there is movement on the political front -- is all part of that strategy.”

”The generals are past masters at creating a sense that there is movement when nothing is actually happening,” said a diplomat based in Rangoon. ”It's in their (the generals) interest to make the international community believe that there are serious talks going on between with them and Aung San Suu Kyi.''

''The reality though may be quite different -- what is needed is independent verification of the contact between the two sides,'' he added.

The U.N. envoy Razali Ismail is anxious to return to Burma to try and facilitate talks between the two sides. During the international meeting of Asian and European ministers on Burma in December, there was a clear understanding that Razali was an essential catalyst in Burma's reconciliation process and that he should return as soon as possible. Two months later, Razali is still waiting for permission to visit Rangoon.

”We are working on a date -- in principle he can visit -- we are not denying him permission to visit,” Win Aung told journalists after meeting the U.N. envoy in Thailand over the weekend. ”Although we have not set a date, he should be visiting not so long from now.''

”Thailand and the U.N. envoy are working closely together on Burma -- their efforts are mutually reinforcing each other,” said Thai foreign ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow after the Thai foreign minister met the U.N. envoy. Thailand is working on convening another international forum on Burma of Asian and European ministers, known as the Bangkok Process.

”The issue is should it be held before there is significant progress in the national reconciliation process or afterwards,” Surakiart said recently.

Now Thailand has indicated that it will only host such a meeting when there has been some real progress. ”We hope to hold the next Bangkok meeting by the middle of this year,” Sihasak told journalists in Phuket. ”But this is subject to some positive development.”