By Aung Naing Oo, Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)

September 17, 2003: The Burmese junta, the State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC), will exclude opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from
the political process. This has been made plain by a policy speech by
Burma's new premier General Khin Nyunt on 30 August. Given the speech's
tone, manner and setting, it looks as if Rangoon has made up its mind.

According to General Khin Nyunt's declaration, the SPDC will go ahead
with a seven-phase roadmap. This strategy is not new but it is one,
which cannot be carried out while Aung San Suu Kyi enjoys her freedom.
Conveniently, she remains in detention following the junta's 30 May ambush
on her entourage.

The Burmese junta has repeatedly stated: "We will release her at an
appropriate time". "An appropriate time" is likely to be when the junta
deems its strategy achieved - perhaps a long while into the future.
However, proceeding according to this strategy, the SPDC will not find a
solution for Burma.

Aung San Suu Kyi is a key part of the problem as well as the solution.
And if the SPDC leaders were smart, they would follow the example of
the White South African government. They would negotiate with Aung San
Suu Kyi just as the Apartheid government did with Nelson Mandela.
Obviously, in order to do so, the Apartheid government recognized Mandela's
pivotal role in the conflict.

Aung San Suu Kyi is Burma's Mandela. She holds the key to the conflict
in Burma. But Rangoon has tried for the past fifteen years to exclude
her from politics. This approach has proved futile. She has been
imprisoned three times already but with every detention her popularity soars.
Her popularity is certain to persist if she remains in detention.

Needless to say, it is her detention that has angered nations the world
over. Many countries, especially the US, the EU, Japan and the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), have responded harshly. It can
readily be noted - and without any intention of causing offence - that
if other party leaders such as U Tin Oo or U Aung Shwe been detained,
the international reaction would have been considerably cooler. And any
additional sanctions imposed on Burma on the occasion of their
detention would have been unlikely. This is the sad truth.

Off and on, the Burmese junta treats Aung San Suu Kyi as a despised
pariah. It has sought at every turn to sideline and belittle her. Yet the
generals fear her defiant speeches and are loathe to see her meet with
supporters all across the state. Her doing so might well have compelled
the SPDC to end her campaign trips three months ago.

Aung San Suu Kyi's status as a Nobel Laureate continues to serve as a
perpetual reminder to SPDC leaders of their precarious hold on power.
Most importantly, they have not forgotten that her National League for
Democracy won a landslide victory in the 1990 election. Her continued
detention will only serve to cement her role as an integral part of the
solution to Burma's political crisis.

Clearly, the SPDC cannot kill Aung San Suu Kyi. This might have been
attempted during the ambush on that fateful day in May. But she is "like
the father, like the daughter." Her father, General Aung San, who died
in 1947, remains a symbol of freedom and defiance for the Burmese
people. Aung San Suu Kyi may die in detention or before she sees freedom in
Burma but she would die a martyr. And she would inspire the Burmese for
generations and haunt the despots from her grave.

Nor can the SPDC release her unconditionally, which is what she will
ask as a condition of her freedom. Her incarceration, therefore, poses a
dilemma for Rangoon. And her freedom causes the SPDC leaders headaches.
She will remain a thorn in the junta's side if she is not brought into
the fold.

In particular, it is impossible to imagine how the West will end its
sanctions if she remains incarcerated. Recently Indonesia, the current
Asean Chair, warned Burma that her continued detention could become the
focus of the grouping's summit in Bali next month. Indonesia's call for
Aung San Suu Kyi's freedom is just another indication that SPDC is
threatened with sour relations not only with the West but also with its
Asean's allies.

Crucially, Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to occasion intensely
negative publicity for the SPDC. The news about her hunger strike is just one
example - even if it is not true. The point is that the SPDC has jailed
her illegally. The best and most obvious choice for the generals,
therefore, is to make her part of the political equation.

"Aung San Suu Kyi was ready to compromise if dialogue took place," said
Daw San San, an NLD Member of Parliament from Rangoon, who escaped from
Burma in August. Unfortunately, Burmese politics took a wrong turn. Now
the SPDC leaders will never know her real intentions. Nor can she offer
what she has in mind now.

One may call it a cult of personality but Aung San Suu Kyi is probably
the only person who can make compromises with the SPDC leaders. It is
highly likely that the whole nation will accept flexibility in her
dealing with the generals. People will be happier to see a compromise
solution if it essentially halts the SPDC's entrenchment.

"Aung San Suu Kyi has realized that some of the key NLD demands are no
longer appropriate," said Daw San San. Reportedly, she might even
accept the SPDC's demand that 25 percent of the un-elected parliamentary
seats be reserved for army personnel. If genuine negotiations were to
take place, they would ease many of the junta's concerns. The junta would
benefit enormously.

Aung San Suu Kyi can be a nightmare or a pleasant dream for the
generals. Indeed, the ball is in the SPDC's court. Hopefully, they will make a
timely decision to reverse the trend.

Aung Naing Oo is a research associate with the Washington-based Burma Fund.