THE ROAD MAP or ROAD BLOCK, BURMA IN CRUCIBLE

By B.K. Sen (Mizzima News)
August 26, 2003

The democratic movement in Burma to end the four decades of military rule had the misfortune of having several buzzwords to set its strategy. Democracy, multi-party democracy, constitution, federal Pyidaungsu, dialogue, tripartite-dialogue, national reconciliation are a few of them. Currently yet another word has surfaced namely "road map'.

It is important for the activists to understand this word as the previous words by and large have fooled the people and strengthened junta's stranglehold.

This concept has emerged after the Asean meeting held in Cambodia. It unanimously passed a resolution that Daw Aug San Su Kyi (DASSK) be released forthwith and Rangoon to initiate political reforms. The Burma foreign minister was totally isolated and put up a defensive note that she would be released in course of time. It was very significant that Asean, which had pursued the policy of non-interference suddenly, decided to assert, overriding the principle of non-interference in national sovereignty, which Myanmar vehemently proclaimed as justification of the manner it has been ruling.

Ironically Thailand has taken the initiative and floated the idea of road map. The question has arisen in the minds of many friends of Burma whether it was an attempt by Thailand to bail out the Junta from the deep crisis it now faces. The concept of road map is illusory and in applicable in situation of Burma. This concept has been borrowed from the conflict resolution process being applied in the Israel- Palestine scenario or may be from politics of Sri Lanka where ethnic conflict has stalled any development

The situations in Israel- Palestine and Burma are absolutely and fundamentally different. The basic difference is that there is bilateral acceptance of an outside facilitator, the unipolar global power, however high and mighty Israel may behave, the influence of US on Israel is a paramount factor. Israel leaders although militarily superior to the Palestinians are basically fighting against a cause to defeat the right of self-determination of Palestinians. The junta in Burma is also fighting against a cause to defeat the right of the people for self-determination of another kind namely the right to form a government according to the will of the people, demonstratively expressed in the 1990 General Election.

There are some similarities but only in appearance. The self-determination that Palestinians are fighting for is external self-determination which the world community is pledged to promote; for the internal self-determination, there are however many restrictions to intervene. The model of road map cannot be transported to the situation of Burma; On the contrary, Philippines, Indonesia and countries ruled by rest while dictators there had been no road map. Even in Sri Lanka where there is mortal ethnic strife there is no such thing as road map.

Democratic transition generally needs no road map the road is clear and chartered. The dictators have to negotiate, retreat and pave the way for peaceful transfer of power, partially or fully. The balance of forces between the rulers and the opposition is more or less even the main issue transparently becomes the roadblock and not the road map. As and when this is removed, the road to restoration of power is cleared. Those who have got the mandate of the people will determine the road map after discussion and dialogue inclusive of all interested parties. The roadblock is the inscrutable mindset of the Junta. It has shown intolerance to any dissent. It has proved its incredibility by series of its high handed and brutal actions culminating in the detention of DASSK in a secret place against all laws and norms.

The one and only road, option, that the people now have is the road that gives them freedom from fear, that generates ground swell against the dictators, one that builds people's power unleashing a momentum of dissent The dictators can be talked to only from position of strength; that is the lesson to be drawn from democratic transitions where the dictators have been brought to their senses Illusion of a road map.

It is important to understand that the country's conflict resolution process has changed track clearly and without any ambiguity. The Depayin episode is the telling evidence. Only those who refuse to read the signals given by the episode, will talk of dialogue They may be naïve or victims of wishful thinking that the junta has unilaterally terminated talks is as clear as daylight.

Worst is the impropriety, the indecency of the manner in which it has been done from the appearance of mutualaccommodation, the process has entered a stage where self-interest /survival of junta would direct its position and determine its strategy principally regarding resumption of talks The present position is absence of confrontation i.e. negative peace But this cannot continue, time is running out. The stage for dialogue once set is fraught with danger for the junta. Inherent in the process is eventual relinquishment of its power the transition to positive peace, entailing a negotiated political solution is bound to come though long and painful. Hurdles may be many; it can create galore impediments and buy time.

The conceptual difficulty regarding the ethnic constituents as partners in the dialogue, the cease fire groups, powers of interim structure giving legitimacy to the junta are a few among others like the future constitution, dealing with past violation of crimes against humanity. The Intelligence head called the seven cease fire groups in response to their letter by them for release of DASSK including political settlement.

In a Trade fair to be held in Kunming, China has invited them to know what they have had talked to and their response, It appears to be part of the game to buy time for the junta. Earlier than this, Gen Mg Aye had visited China and had talks with Chinese leaders. The junta allowed Ludu Sein Win, a veteran journalist to accept interview with the Editor of Irrawaddy. In the interview it was categorically stated that the Burma Army was not a monolithic force, which cannot split, nor can any force break it. In the face of all these, the attempt of Thailand to broker a road map for political settlement is misleading

International intervention Sanctions and international pressure have been significant on Burma's junta. Reports about major economic crisis, financial breakdown, Bank runs, foreign companies withdrawing from Burma. Come and go. But nothing has happened to generate a political crisis. The matter of sanction itself has also been put to critical survey to establish that sanction does not work Constructive engagement also did not deliver.

The brutal oppressive apparatus of the Intelligence service has successfully contained dissent or opposition confrontation. In the overhaul assessment of the political situation of today's Burma, it is abundantly clear that the International community has to play much more than it has played up-to-date" The indignant pity of the civilized world" is not enough. Secretary of State Collin Powell top policy maker of President Bush has said that we are dealing with thugs in connection with the junta of Burma. If that were so an action by the coalition of the willing is called for US by itself cannot initiate such action, as there will be serious misunderstanding.

Moreover US also is deeply embroiled in Iraq, Afganistan, Middle East, Africa and even in the Korean Peninsula Can UN effectively perform to facilitate political reforms in Burma? UN cannot do much .Its Charter Article 2 prohibits interference. Article 2(7) however allows intervention but only through the application of Chapter V11 provided it is a just war or crimes against humanity and provided there is no veto. State's poor human rights record could not justify international intervention. This right arises in an emergency, to stop continuing commission of crimes against humanity.

The Security Council has China as its permanent member and it will veto any resolution brought against Burma UN it appears from past record can only act as a moral force which of course cannot be belittled. There is unfortunately no international human rights law which all member nations have ratified as an UN covenant creating a forum for individuals to complain against their governments. An international rule against State instigation of criminal offences has yet to crystallize.

The European court however held that instigation of an offence by police agent was a breach of the fair trial guarantee States provide guarantees to challenge the legitimacy of law enforcement authority and prove that the criminal offence they stand charged is the creation of government agents Rule of law has been eliminated in Burma. It is internationally a pariah state and internally a police (military) state in this context the only option left is regional initiative. The Road map in that context is worth limited
consideration Thailand but India, China, Bangladesh; the neighboring countries along with Malaysia must be its constituents. Consultations with the junta leaders, DASSK (NLD), the ethnic leaders and exile democratic leaders have to conduct and a time frame without any ambiguity has to be determined. This step will act as a dragnet because inevitably the junta will maneuver to get out of it. The junta will play the game of deception but in that process it will be exposed and eventually lose all its maneuverability.

It will finally have to face people's power and come to the negotiating table and play a defensive role the darkest hour could be the beginning of a new dawn.

(B.K. Sen, a Senior Advocate contributed this article to the Mizzima)