Analysis - By Larry Jagan
Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)
August 2,2003:

BANGKOK, Aug 1 (IPS) - Thailand is pushing ahead with its initiative to
bring democratic change to Burma by pursuing discussions on a road map
to national reconciliation and democracy, but where this political
journey leads to remains unclear.

This week, Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai discussed his
ideas for this road map with his Burmese counterpart Win Aung in Bangkok.
Win Aung said he would take the Thai ideas back to Rangoon for further
discussion.

Since Thai officials met with Burma's deputy prime minister Khin Maung
Win, who visited Bangkok as a special envoy for Gen Than Shwe recently,
Surakiart has been canvassing vigorously for support from countries in
Asia and Europe that have expressed interest in helping Burma implement
democratic reform

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has said that Thailand was
taking the initiative because the crisis in Burma was more than Rangoon
could handle, and that it would be easier for it to deal with friendly
neighbours than for the matter to be brought before the U.N. Security
Council.

''We are doing what we are doing now because we are concerned about
Burma. We are not pressuring Burma or interfering with its internal
affairs,'' he said. ''Since we are Burma's close neighbour, we should
initiate something that leads to the international community's acceptance of
developments in Burma.''

Under its vision for this road map, Thailand wants the Burmese regime
to propose a series of concrete and practical steps towards
democratisation. As part of this process, the Thai government would then host a
meeting of interested parties that would be tasked with fleshing out the
Burmese road map.

But where this will lead -- if it leads anywhere -remains unclear.

To date, the Thai idea of this road map, floated in the wake of the
detention of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, seems rather vague. ”It's really
only a concept that still needs to be flesh-out,” said a senior Thai
foreign ministry source.

”It's a working idea that has to be refined before it gets seriously
unveiled,” added a senior Thai diplomat.

European leaders who discussed with Surakiart at various bilateral
meetings during the Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali last week all seemed to
have been given varying versions of it.

”It's not really a road map as such,” a senior European official at the
Bali meeting said in an interview, ”but ten or twelve proposed steps
which would help the Burmese military government to move towards full
democracy within the next few years''.

For all of the talk about the Thai road map however, many foreign
governments and the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), of
which Burma is a member, believe that the first step on any road map must
be the release of Suu Kyi.

For more than two months now, she has been held under what the
government calls protective custody after a violent attack on her and her
supporters in northern Burma. That attack has been blamed on pro-Rangoon
elements.

”ASEAN and the Thai government have called for Aung San Suu Kyi's
immediate release and we would like to see steps taken that would move
towards her release,” said Surakiart in Bali last month. ”The recent release
of more than ninety-one political prisoners is a good signal and if
these steps can be spelt out as part of the road map as to how and when
she would be released that would be very helpful.”

But U.N. special envoy Razali Ismail - who helped broker the original
talks between Suu Kyi and the generals -- has also been very clear:
there can be no dialogue process when one of the key partners is under
detention.

Privately, ASEAN leaders have made it clear to Rangoon that they
expected Suu Kyi to have already been released by now.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has warned the generals that
if nothing happens soon, ASEAN will have to consider expelling Burma –
although this would only be done as a last resort.

At the ASEAN meeting of foreign ministers in Phnom Penh in mid-June,
Burma was asked to give them a firm date for Suu Kyi's release. This was
reiterated by Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda last week
during Win Aung's visit to Jakarta.

Burma continues to ask its Asian allies to be patient. ”We need some
breathing space,” Win Aung told his Indonesian hosts.

But international pressure may be having an impact on Burma's generals.
Last week, the military authorities allowed the International Red Cross
in Rangoon to visit Suu Kyi in the guesthouse in which she is being
detained.

Thai officials say they see the road map as having a course of steps –
after the release of Aung San Suu Kyi - which would lead to Burma
becoming a fully-fledged democracy before 2006 when Rangoon takes over the
chairmanship of ASEAN.

The other steps would include Thailand hosting an international forum,
which in the words of the Thai foreign minister would ''brainstorm''
with representatives of the Burmese military government on economic
liberalisation, increasing political freedom, drawing up a constitution and
then holding elections within the next two years or so.

In truth, there is very little new in this framework that Razali has
not already been discussing in detail with the three main players in
Burma - the military, the democratic opposition and the ethnic minorities.
But what is new is the Thai proposal to host an international forum on
Burma. ”This would be a senior officials meeting rather than a
ministerial one,” said the Thai foreign ministry spokesman, Sihasak
Phuangketkeow.

Originally, it was to be to include representatives of ASEAN, China,
Japan and Europe. The United States did not seem to be on the original
invitation list.

But in the course of the last week or so, ministry officials have
realised that the guest list has become too long and the thinking now
appears to be an initial meeting which would include Thailand, China and
India with representatives of the Burmese military junta.

Thaksin has said that neighbouring countries need to agree first on
political change in urma. ”As Burma's neighbours have the greatest
interest in seeing the country become democratic and thereby ensure regional
stability and security,” added a senior Thai diplomat, ”it would make
sense for them to be the main participants in the road map forum''.