Thailand's Road Map for Burma

Kanbawza Win
Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)

July 30, 2003:

“Sayagyi Yodaya” in Burmese if literally interpreted means great master (benefactor) Thailand. Now to all intent it seems that the fate of 52 million Burmese both Myanmar and Non Myanmar will be decided by none other than Thailand whose road map was already seen by the Junta that does not raise any objection. What an irony that the Burmese people being unable to reach a consensus among themselves has to invite an outsider “Yodaya” to come in and find a compromise answer for them. The disgrace Burmese Generals should go enmasse to the graves of the Burmese kings and pay obeisance (Kandaw) to ask for forgiveness admitting that they being in a position of a drowning man have to catch a straw.

But this also paints the picture that the Generals who are fiercely xenophobic and accused the pro democracy movement as the lackey of Western imperialism are now being themselves the follower of Yodaya, if the not the minions of the foreign power. Unable to give up power to the legally elected government and is beyond their comprehension to tell the truth they have endeavour to manufacture several stories such as discovering an assignation plot and accusing a non violent opponent Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as embarking on a violent ways, or trying to divert the attention of the people by orchestrating riots with the Muslim minorities or ethnic races and so on. They are not ashamed to use every possible mean to sway the people to their sordid side. Such is the lust of the Generals in their quest for power.

However, it is a fact that Thailand alone sided with the hated Junta. As far as Burma is concerned, no matter about gross human rights violations, steady flow of refugees into the kingdom, flooding the country with narcotics, cross border attacks, lost of face in the international community etc., the Constructive Engagement Policy is still there. Why is Thailand all alone against Rome? Or has the US has given its tactic approval to go ahead is food for thought. Maybe Thailand explore the little diplomatic avenue left for Burma to give the Generals their last chance before the international community take on with them.

But one thing is sure is that Burma is helplessly dependent on Thailand. One may recollect that the day Thaksin Shinawatra launched it war on narcotics is the very day where the Banks in Burma crashed, as the country is dependent on narco- economy. An average Burmese would say about Thailand as “Ngo Sar Ye Sar” meaning he will reap the economic benefit whether the Burmese will cry (in trouble) or laugh (in good times). Obviously how can Thailand let go such a client state? So this is one of the reasons that she is defending Burma.

It can also be construed that the road map may be one of Thaksin’s demonstrations that Thailand is independent and that it decided on its own merits and is not afraid to go against the wishes of the US. Being the first Thai Prime Minister to meet the President of the United States face to face individually he stands tall and has amply demonstrated that he is the upcoming ASEAN leader now that Dr. Mahirthir is retiring.

In the light of these things let us scrutinize the so called “road map” Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has told reporters at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali that the "road map" include the release Aung San Suu Kyi and restore democracy, all political organizations, including armed nationalities would be invited to hold a forum to draw up a road map for political reform in Burma. He also claimed that they had already discussed the matter with military rulers in Rangoon. Thailand would chair a forum with "like-minded" countries, organizations and groups within Burma.

On theory it seems to quite a good plan as it will bring all the antagonist to the negotiating table but practically it would be almost impossible. The Junta has reacted coolly to Thailand's proposal because it will not negotiate unless they are from a position of strength and adheres to the illogical theory that it would rather solve its own problems from within, and have indicated that intervention would not be welcome.

On the other hand the ethnic leaders were cautious to immediately support the Thai government's proposal and called for greater participation of the elected representatives. The ethnic nationalities said that it was still unclear and would like to know the advantages vis a vis the UN approach even though Britain, China and ASEAN have expressed interest in the road map. To be candid the ethnic nationalities just wish to have some authority over their social and economic affairs and want it to be reflected in a new constitution. To this the Burmese Junta replied by interpreting as a serious threat to internal security to justify its iron grip on power.

Burma's military leaders like their Burmese monarchs are quite naive on the workings of the international events and interpret it to their own benefit even though they often do it ineptly. Their xenophobic tendency resent the outside world and wants Burma to be free of outside influence including Thailand. This means they will defy international political overtures or pressures, and they will not allow foreign companies or NGOs to operate freely in Burma. They will rather chose to face the civilize world and bear the consequences of sanctions and international opprobrium for only the people will suffer and not the Generals and their cronies.

So to put this “road map” in the nut shell is that every body except the Junta is not sure to show up at the conference and the game is up. In other words the devil’s advocate of the “road map” can easily become a “red mode” because since 1988 to Black Friday is strewn red with blood. Besides the Burmese Generals loath to go down into history that the little brother “Phama” (in the Thai language meaning Burmese) is compelled to agree to a brilliant Thai proposal.