Scholars, intelligentsia, analyst and politicians used to comment that the road to Burma is through China. In the latest Black Friday incidence, where a premeditated attack by the army on the Burmese pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, all the world including Asia led by Japan couple with the ASEAN countries have come out strongly against the military Junta. It clearly paints the picture that it was beyond the norm of civilized nation that robust soldiers should attack a lone girl without any warning. It was only Beijing that stays mum and interpreted that this episode as purely an internal affairs of Burma.

The Junta has knew that the United States and Europe would step up pressure after attacking the Lady and killing scores of her followers and is well prepared for that but was taken aback by the vehement reaction of ASEAN countries who they had come to believe were unbending allies. Burma has used ASEAN as a forum to legitimize itself and to resist the Western countries moves to isolate her. But this ugly episode compels the ASEAN to construe Burma as a thorn in a throat which could choke to death, as it has become a major international embarrassment tarnishing the organization's reputation which might as well affect the region's tourist industry and economic recovery.

The photo diplomacy, which the regime launched sending both Foreign Minister Win Aung and Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win, after being appointed as special envoy of the top hardliner General Than Shwe, on a whirlwind tours of the region, does not yield any expected result. Jetting with the photo album of the Lady, tuck under their arms, just to prove that the girl they loath, is well kept and pleading the governments of South and Southeast Asia to be patient and give the generals more time to get their version of national reconciliation process to yield result. How, can they trust, when the Generals rhetoric does not match their deeds at all and this was proven long ago since 1990 general elections?

As soon as their fair lady was detained, Japan who has always followed and engagement policy immediately stopped all new humanitarian and development aid. Japan has been one of the staunch allies of the Generals, and is the largest provider of economic aid to Burma (2.1 billion yen in fiscal year 2002 alone). Now its “carrot and stick policy” has been tested. Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, a women folk like the Burmese Lady have threatened to suspend all financial support, including trade and investment that would carry a certain weight. But it is still to be seen whether this rare and short term application of stick to Berumah will work, if China could have easily replaced Japan.

The pro democracy movements both inside and outside the country couple with the ethnic nationalities are now convinced that only forced can solve the problem. This rationale has been shared by the West and the international community at large. Clandestine reports have indicated that arms have been flowing in and training has been going on secretly in the designated areas as the people prepared for the inevitable.

Obviously this alarm the Chinese, for Burma like North Korea, is a client state. In 1989, an arms deal of $1.4 billion was signed and another $400 million was signed in 1994. This led to a major expansion of the Burmese armed forces, estimated to be nearly half a million men second only to China. It has also enabled the Burmese military to expand to a point where it could occupy territories far beyond its previous reach. It sustains the Junta but locked Burmese political and economic life into a stasis from which it has yet to emerge. The Chinese had also invested handsomely in Burma and is a major outlet for Yunnan manufactured cheap goods. Hence it is too much for her to lose this client state.

Chinese support for port developments in the coastal regions of Burma, with sophisticated raider screens including the construction of a two-lane highway from Yunnan province has the capability far superior than India. Moreover its claim of sovereignty over Spratly Islands has caused uneasiness in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean and nobody would dare to antagonize the Dragon. On the other hand China has been alarmed by the US military action, first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq, and is now more concerned with the growing military cooperation between India and the US. Hence China will not let go Burma easily.

The rationale of the Chinese to support the Junta seems the best way to preserve stability on China’s borders; second, the view that China still needs Burma’s support in international forums as both of them are in the category of worst human rights violators; third, the concern that a democratic Burma could lead to future containment of China, especially if it joins the Western camp; and fourth, the fear that a federal Burma might perhaps spread unwelcome ideas to some of the minority groups in Yunnan and other provinces of China. The fifth is that its radar stations installed in coastal Burma that eaves drop on the India Ocean could be lost. Hence to warn the West especially the US and the world at large to stay off Burma it has send a detachment of its armed forces, the People’s Liberation Army to the Sino-Burma border area. Hence, the Burmese problem can easily become a regional one, if not can be another Korea.

Will the much trumpeted Asian way solved the problem? At the Cambodian summit, ASEAN foreign ministers have agreed to send a ministerial mission to Burma and insist on seeing the Lady. This very much depends on Hassan Wirajuda, the Indonesian Foreign Minister who is the rotating chairperson of ASEAN. The outcome of it will be the authenticated proof of whether ASEAN is a lame duck or not. It is already more than a decade that ASEAN cannot solve the Burmese problem in as much as Arabs could not solve the problem of Saddam Hussein so much so that somebody has to come and solve it. Will Burma on the same line and the Asian leaders should gave much thought to this Burmese version of the Beauty and the Beast .

Winnipeg, Canada