Will Burma
be the Pivot of the New Cold War?
By Kanbawza Win
Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)
July 11, 2003: “Like it or
not Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will not be released.” is what
I think. My Burmese compatriots would surely comment “Pa
Sat Poke Hnin Ma Pyaw Ne” meaning “Shut up, you
bustard with a foul mouth.” This is exactly what I want
to be. But obsession and pragmatism has not coincided for
the people of Burma in the last half a century. With the castration
of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD followed by the Junta’s
diplomatic offensive by the Burmese thugs, the internal affairs
of Burma have becoming fast an international affair.
In the Depaeyin tragedy, the past and the existing dictatorial
regimes of the world have either keep mum or give perfunctory
comment, while some merely interpreted as the internal affairs.
In the international arena a major shift since the fall of
Saddam Hussein's regime, Moscow that did not utter a word
about Black Friday may feel a necessity to offset repercussions
of its flawed policies on Iraq. It was no accident that a
nuclear reactor was constructed in Burma with the possibility
of making a dirty bomb and the Russian embassy was the still
the KGB Asian headquarters. China is well known for its policy
of supporting the Junta and India because of its pragmatic
approach are surely on the side of the Junta. Subsequently,
there have been renewed calls for a Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi
triangle, a potential alliance of three nuclear-armed countries
of some 2.5 billion people that theoretically would be able
to balance US power in coming years. Lamentably all these
three major countries have in one way or other have given
support or tactical support to the Junta.
“Russia will continue interaction with its partners
in the Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle. This interaction
is important for the international stability in general,"
said Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. The dialogue between Moscow,
Beijing and New Delhi will continue as the three nations have
shared interest in “mult-ipolar and just world".
Also at the ASEAN meeting Russia, China and India have reportedly
given "signals" that they would sign up to the grouping's
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), a sort of non-aggression
pact with the 10 ASEAN member states.
In the wake of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's
visit to China, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied that there
was any move to form a China-India-Russia strategic alliance,
only conceding that the three countries have been sharing
similar views on some international issues but the Igor Ivanov
has praised the visit as a significant for global stability.
There is a growing arms-sale relationship between Russia and
the two countries providing Moscow with billions of much-needed
foreign exchange while Beijing and New Delhi get sophisticated
armaments ranging from combat aircraft to submarines
Russia and India recently held their first joint naval exercises
in the Indian Ocean, when a large task force of Russian surface
ships and nuclear attack submarines simulated attacks on aircraft-carrier
groups. The naval exercise was coordinated with a mission
by long-range bombers to simulate an attack by long-range
cruise missiles. Last year in December, Russian President
Vladimir Putin traveled to China and India, and high-level
rhetoric about the need for greater cooperation also included
thinly veiled anti-Western pronouncements and calls for a
"multi-polar world", Moscow's mantra for counterbalancing
America's global dominance. Hence speculation resurfaced about
the three countries ganging up to form the "axis"
due to a perceived sense among all three that US power must
somehow or other be checked.
All three were disturbed by the Iraq war and protested against
what they viewed as a rejection of the rules of the international
game. They still back the primacy of the United Nations Security
Council in solving crises, and support the principle of non-intervention
in internal affairs of sovereign states and Burma is one of
that.
On the other hand the idea that now the Eastern axis may
be the only answer to US arrogance has gained strength. Russia
and China have already solved their border disputes, while
China and India are still divided by a mere chunk of barren
terrain and grant of asylum to the Dalai Lama and a few thousand
followers. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) had provided a convenient forum for the trilateral axis.
Now the SCO includes China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and India has been touted as a
potential candidate. India's joining in could raise the SCO's
significance.
Late last month, China and Russia struck an unprecedented
deal jointly to survey oil and natural-gas resources in their
border areas. In May, Chinese President Hu Jintao, not only
put his signature on a strategic energy pact with Putin, but
also attended the SCO summit. The SCO presidents gathered
in the Kremlin and agreed to have a secretariat in Beijing
and a Regional Anti-Terrorist Force in the Kyrgyz capital
Bishkek from 2004 on. One sign of the SCO's transformation
is a plan to hold joint anti-terrorism exercises this year
in Kazakhstan involving the armed forces of all six members.
Thus, there is a motivation in all three capitals to cooperate
on strategic, security and economic issues.
But aside from calls for a "multi-polar world",
the idea of an axis seemingly is yet to evolve into a clear-cut
strategy. The would-be "strategic triangle" is still
short of an implementation system, prerequisite to ensuring
future success of any stratagem. In this aspect Burma came
into the picture, a testing ground where the pro democratic
and nationalities with the support of the West will faced
the dictatorial Junta supported by these troika, a fearful
scenario.
The ASEAN countries whose Constructive Engagement policy
have let the Burmese jean out of the bottle will also be reaping
the benefit of either staying neutral or aligning with the
West. Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and the rest of the Indo
China countries will continue to support the Junta but Philippines
and Indonesia may have second thought. If they have acted
decisively and supported the democratic forces in 1988 there
would be no dictatorship in Burma and the region would have
been a much happier place to live in.
In any case it will be the people of Burma that will suffer
miserably and the pro democracy forces led by NLD including
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to linger in jail at least
for the moment. Now the international community has come to
know the craftiness and the cunning of the Burmese Generals.
But there is still time to act if the West acts decisively.
Winnipeg, Canada
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