June 17,2003: Now, the 30th May Massacre is over and the picture has
become clearer some conclusions can be drawn and its time for the people
of Burma, to think how to respond to this latest threat. Some of the
conclusions which we can visualize are:-

(1) The Junta has demonstrated that they are tough, rough, crude, rude
and uncivilized but the world and the civilized international community
will have to deal with them.

(2) In the past year, Suu Kyi had doggedly rebuilt her NLD that had
withered through years of repression. Branch offices were reopened and
young activists recruited to the cause. Suu Kyi toured the country,
drawing rapturous crowds, even in the country’s remote regions with large
ethnic populations, where her party's Myanmar base could be a handicap.
This action sends cold chills through the spine of the Generals who sees
that it the beginning of the end of their supremacy. As her popularity
increased, so did harassment from the regime until it no longer
tolerate and crack down on May 30th.

(3) There was clearly a power struggle between the Generals. The
country's top General, Than Shwe and the hard liners clearly feels there is
no need to negotiate with the NLD. But the pragmatists centering around
the military intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt are prepared to talk
to Suu Kyi and want to engage the international community on political
and economic reform in the country as a mean to sustain the Tatmadaw
(Burmese army) and continue to make a mockery to democracy. The proof of
it is that in the past three years during Razali’s frequent trips to
Rangoon, had not met Gen Maung Aye except when he met all three of the
top leaders, on which occasion Gen Khin Nyunt took the lead. But now
Maung Aye exercising his power took the lead which clearly indicates that
he had either outdone or patch up with Khin Nyunt and oust Than Shwe (as
they had done to Saw Maung) if he is too much of a stumbling block to
the survival of the army. The end result is that there is some glimmer
of hope for a real negotiation no longer the Dialogue of the Deaf.

(4) The US have clearly indicated that more punitive action is in the
offing if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is not released and the road to democracy
is continue to be blocked by the Junta. The scenario is that Burma
agenda can be put up to the United Nations Security Council and forced can
be applied as in the case of Belgian Congo of Moise Tsombe days, but
whether Koffi Annan will act as Dak Harmojold (the first Secretary
General of the UN) is doubtful.

(5) The Members of the European Parliament has indicated that unless
there is a rapid improvement, it will push for the immediate levying of
targeted European Union investment sanctions, like those of the US.
Companies still defiantly operating in Burma, such as Total of France,
British American Tobacco, and several German firms must be told to wind
down and pull out. Unlike Iraq case, this time the European Union is ready
to follow the American lead.

(6) Thailand policy of cooperation and conciliation with a genocidal
regime is under fire. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and President
George W Bush had called for, "an immediate substantive political dialogue
between Rangoon and all domestic political elements, to be in
consistent with the regime’s stated commitment to a peaceful transition to
democracy." The Bush administration had freeze Burmese assets in US banks,
and will oppose international loans to the country, the strongest stance
of the Americans. Much pressure is on Thailand but is still to be seen
whether Thailand will encourage the Burmese democracy movement and stop
persecuting the Burmese who fled into their country.

(7) Even though Burma is a heated topic in the Phnom Penh meeting we
cannot expect much progress because of ASEAN’s long-standing policy of
Constructive Engagement which Razali described as status quo, is just
turning blind eye towards the human rights violations as the internal
politics of its member countries. Win Aung have flatly declared that they
will not release Daw Suu in the foreseeable future. Even though the
Foreign Ministers of ASEAN raised the issue at an informal meeting and
Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has joined the chorus in calling
the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, it will still be a quiet diplomacy
and will compromise the integrity of the organization at the expenses
of the Burmese people.

(8) For China the payoff of Burma goes beyond economics to geopolitics,
offering potential access through Myanmar to the Indian Ocean. The
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said that it is an issue
between the Burmese government and its opposition parties making no
reference to democracy or human rights. He clearly explains that China's
priority was to "maintain political stability and economic development." This
explicitly means that China is happy with the status quo.

(9) India which shares a 1400 kms long border with Burma that runs
arbitrarily across forested ridges from Arunachal Pradesh to Mizoram will
remain silent. It has an open border where the tribal people are free
to move on either side. Both countries have made a virtue of a situation
over which they have little control, as the political border is made
irrelevant by geography and history. Though the majority of the Nagas
live in India, a large section is in Burma. Ditto for the Kukis and Mizos
claim a close relationship with the Chin peoples of Burma. As far as
Burma is concerned it will continue to follow a pragmatic foreign policy
and is of no help to the Burmese democracy movement.

(10) Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi has telephone that it
wants to see the freedoms and political activities of Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi and other NLD members restored and will be putting pressure on
Burma. But Japan is not only close to the Burmese army; it still adheres to
the traits of dictatorship and is of little help to the Burmese
democracy cause.

After nearly one and a half decades of non violent struggle of the
Burmese people against the cruel dictatorship there is little hope to
continue. While the release of the Nobel Peace laureate will be welcomed, it
will not wash away the bloodstains on the hand of the thugs who have
wantonly killed thousands of its own people since 1988. Nor will it be
any more than a token gesture, as long as the junta refuses to engage in
any kind of serious dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD. In view
of all these, the only option left is for the West is to arm the ethnic
and the democratic forces in the peripheral of Burma and speak in the
language which the Junta understands and liberated the people of Burma.

Bruxells, Belgique