(By Lee Kim Chew / The Straits Times: November 8, 2003)

America's economic sanctions on Myanmar are biting hard but the military regime shows no sign of dropping its repressive policies against pro-democracy dissidents.

Instead, the junta is working overtime to endure the sanctions by canvassing for more aid from its neighbours.

From Thailand and India, the generals are securing soft loans to supplement the enormous aid they get from China.

These lessen the difficulties of the cash-strapped junta, which will lose US$356 million (S$624 million) in exports this year because of a US ban on Myanmar products.

Some 40,000 garment workers, mostly women, have lost their jobs in Myanmar and the industry, which sells most of its products to the US, and could lose 100,000 more jobs, says the US State Department.

To overcome its predicament, the junta has appealed for more aid and investments from Asean countries.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra plans to finance a new road costing 122.9 million baht (S$5.43 million) from Thailand's Mae Sot district to Myanmar's Myawaddy town.

This will help Thailand achieve its ambition of becoming a commercial hub for Indochina.

Thai press reports say Mr Thaksin will also offer 1.78 billion baht as a soft loan when he meets his Myanmar counterpart, General Khin Nyunt, in Bagan on Monday.

To promote cross-border trade, the Thais are seeking joint ventures with Yangon and they are thinking of scrapping import tariffs on Myanmar's farm products.

Other measures to promote tourism are in the works. Thailand has also agreed to Myanmar's request to study the feasibility of building a deep-sea port and export zone at Tavoy.

From India, Myanmar is to get US$57 million in credit to upgrade the Yangon Mandalay railway.

The Indian Express newspaper reports that Yangon has assured Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat that it would not allow its territory to be used for anti-Indian activities by insurgents along India's north-east border.

India is optimistic that trade between the two countries can double to US$1 billion in the next three years.

This week's visit of Mr Shekhawat, the first Indian Vice-President to get a red-carpet welcome in Yangon in 16 years, underlines the growing ties.

In an apparent move to counter China's burgeoning presence in Myanmar, Admiral Madhvendra Singh visited Yangon last September to seek access for Indian frigates to Myanmar ports.

The Indian Express said Delhi provided military hardware to Yangon one year ago.

It said Myanmar's air force chief was in the Indian capital last Monday to seek Delhi's help to beef up its air force.

To woo Yangon, India has muted its criticisms of the junta. Like China, it says the detention of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is 'an internal problem'.

Myanmar's military leaders have been politically adroit at promoting ties with India to balance the influence of China, upon which they rely heavily for aid and trade.

Last January, Beijing helped the junta with a US$200 million soft loan and forgave part of its debt.

The US has warned it will impose more sanctions on the regime unless it frees pro- democracy dissidents and starts reconciliation talks.

But the warning has fallen on deaf ears. British American Tobacco, the world's second biggest cigarette maker, yesterday announced its withdrawal from Myanmar because of pressures from the British government and lobby groups, but its stake has been taken up by Singapore's Distinction Investment Holdings.

Clearly, Yangon's neighbours are not fretting over US admonishments as they pursue their strategic interests.

Moreover, the junta has proved to be adroit in deflecting pressures from Asean countries. Its recent proposal for constitutional change has got it off the hook.

Myanmar's road map to reforms envisages a new constitution, a referendum and free elections. But for years, the junta has talked about a creating new charter without ever coming close to doing it.

Its road map has no timetable for fresh elections. Nor is there any role envisaged for Ms Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy.

Myanmar's poor masses are suffering more than ever before as the impact of Western sanctions reverberate through the economy.

All this is depressing news for the pro-democracy movement. As one Myanmar economist puts it, the junta has 'a road map for eternity'.