Views of U Htay Aung; Burmese Army expert based in Thailand

DVB (August 26,2003)

DVB : How do you see the current situation?

U Htay Aung : Most people are thinking that the military junta has to change because of what is happening around the world and what is happening inside Burma after the Dipeyin incident. We have to wait and see whether the changes are only on surface or from within.

DVB : What do you think of General Khin Nyunt becoming the Prime Minister?

U Htay Aung : When they changed from being the SLORC to the SPDC in 1997, and when they were originally the SLORC, General Than Shwe was the chairman of War Council and he was also a joint PM. Now, General Khin Nyunt has become the PM from being Sec-1. But what we are not clear is whether General Khin Nyunt is working as a member of the War Council and is working jointly with the cabinet. Or is he completely responsible for the government? If General Than Shwe is still existing as the chairman of War Council, I think that the junta is preparing to separate the War Council and the government.

DVB : If General Khin Nyunt is no more in the party but in the government wholly, doesn’t that mean he is being demoted?

U Htay Aung : Even during the BSP (Burma Socialist Programme Party)period, if you are sent from War Council down to the government, you can regard that you are being demoted. But if General Khin Nyunt is in the government and he is still in the War Council with a position, you can’t say that he is demoted. It could be that he is responsible for both sides.

DVB : Most people think that General Soe Win is a hardliner. What are your view if he becomes Sec-1, a powerful position?

U Htay Aung : It is quite difficult to say because the junta makes life difficult for outsiders. For example, when Lieutenant-General Soe Win gained the Sec-2 position, we assumed that he would be the most powerful man in the War Council after the chairman, the deputy chairman and Sec-1, but he is always behind Lieutenant-General Shwe Mann in newspaper articles. They seem to be sharing power among themselves regardless of the positions they are in. For example, if you look at either the War Council or the army itself, at the moment, the army has grabbed power and the people who are powerful and hold powerful positions in the army are more powerful.