Discussion on effects of US, EU sanctions against SPDC

DVB ( July 20,2003 )

The international pressure has risen markedly against the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council) military government after the 30 May Tabayin incident.

As mentioned earlier, even the SPDC's closest ally, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed, has warned that Burma might have to be expelled from ASEAN if its military rulers continue defying world pressure (to release Aung San Suu Kyi). At the same time, the threat of sanctions by the US-led western nations is increasing daily.

The latest and strongest pressure is the import ban legislation passed by the two houses of the United States Congress. Furthermore, preparations said to be under way to discuss the deteriorating situation in Burma at the United Nations Security Council. These measures were gradually taken after the Tabayin massacre and detention of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi with the intent to persuade the military government to hold talks with the democratic forces led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi at the earliest instant. This week Sunday feature discusses the effectiveness of the sanctions and the prospects of holding a political dialogue between the military junta and the opposition.

Discussants for this programme include veteran politician Thakhin Thein Pe from Rangoon, CRPP (Committee Representing People's Parliament) member and SNLD leader U Khun Tun Oo, and NCGUB (National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma) UN representative Dr Thaung Tun from New York, US.

First, let us study the import ban legislation passed by the two houses of the United States Congress. Dr Thaung Tun gave the following explanation.

Dr Thaung Tun : The main objective of our efforts to get sanctions imposed is to weaken the economic base of the SPDC. In previous years, exports from Burma to the United States amounted to about 400m dollars, and the bulk of this amount goes into the coffers of the SPDC. By passing the legislation, we will be able to block this 400m dollars from going to the SPDC. Another point is blocking any loan or financial assistance from international financial institutions such as World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund), or ADB (Asian Development Bank). The next point is freezing the assets owned by the SPDC and their cronies. Another is officially recognizing the National League for Democracy (NLD) as the legitimate representative of the Burmese people (as determined by the 1990 election). That is all in the name of the bill - Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act. The sanctions are aimed at pressuring the SPDC towards the path of democracy.

President Bush is expected to sign the bill in the near future. However, it is learned that within days of the import ban legislation passed by the United States Congress, many garment factories in Rangoon have already closed down. Thakhin Thein Pe and U Khun Tun Oo said factory workers were given salaries for three months and the factories were closed down.

Thakhin Thein Pe : What we heard is that some factories that do not have a clear view say they are stopping [production] temporary for a month. Some factories gave workers salaries for three months and shut down the factories temporarily. That is the scenario.

U Khun Tun Oo : There is bound to be an impact and some will be hurt presently. What is important is who will be hurt and what will be the consequences, and we will have to wait and see. Presently, factories had to be closed down but the workers are not feeling the full impact as yet because they have been given salaries for three months. And, since the bill has not come into force yet, some have kept their factories open, at least for the time being. Once the bill is signed into law, there will definitely be an impact. We can definitely say that because of the sanctions our country will face some form of difficulty.

Thakhin Thein Pe : If you close down the factory, you are obliged to give the workers salaries for three months. However, some factories that do not want to give three months severance pay to the workers say they are stopping temporary for a month. The workers also realized what was going on. They knew and attributed the consequences to the detention of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is released today, the problems will be over tomorrow.

That was Thakhin Thein Pe and U Khun Tun Oo explaining about the situation in Rangoon. When asked whether these sanctions that cause the closure of factories could lead to other undesirable consequences and mass unrest, U Khun Tun Oo gave a thoughtful reply.

U Khun Tun Oo : There is different level of difficulty. If there is rice and ngapi (fish paste) and you can survive with the bare necessities, then it is another matter. However, if you envision the future in the long term then these are not good for us at all. It is going to affect the country especially when there is no investment, no productive forces, and our products are not market-oriented and sanctioned. I see this not only affecting us but our children and grandchildren as well. Nowadays, it is a free world economy and the information technology age. We need to have productive forces that are on par with the modern age and we should manufacture products that are suitable for the era. Rather than going in that direction, if we increase our rice and oil production, then it is another matter. What I am trying to say is, whether there is going to be an impact depends on that. If the government feels it could carry on then it will keep on going. In reality, they should evaluate what is being affected.

That was the view of U Khun Tun Oo. Veteran politician Thakhin Thein Pe, citing the SPDC dailies, said there are signs that the SPDC could engage in reconciliation dialogue.

Thakhin Thein Pe : Yesterday (18 July), Aung Moe San wrote an article - Three key elements that must be realized without fail for emergence of a democratic state. In that article, the first element is - to build national reconciliation without fail taking lessons of the past. After seeing the paper, we were all very happy. After all, we have always been urging (the SPDC and NLD) to hold talks and find answers to national reconciliation and peace. Since the newspapers are all government-owned and if what they say is true, we think Burma will soon be seeing national reconciliation talks and achieving peace and unity. What we want them to do first now is to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The second is to release all (detained) NLD members and political prisoners. The third is to reopen all NLD offices and the reestablishment of NLD party. After that, hold reconciliation talks and build back national unity. We believe that will be the best for the country.

That was Thakhin Thein Pe's view. The mouthpiece of the military government is saying this on one hand while on the other hand it is strongly objecting the sanctions. It criticized the sanctions as having adverse effects on the national reconciliation process. Some political observers also shared similar views. Regarding these assessments, U Khun Tun Oo and Thakhin Thein Pe gave the following responses.

U Khun Tun Oo : I think, there is no other way but to resume the talks. I have said this many times before too. Personally, I think they would consider how to successfully revive the talks. This is because you mentioned the UN Security Council in your question. Once the UN Security Council gets involved then there is not much left to do. As you had said, prospects cannot be too good for the SPDC. Personally, I think the talks must be resumed with genuine good will and with a view to solve all these problems. No matter how farfetched the objective of the reconciliation talks may be, I think there is no other way but to hold talks.

Thakhin Thein Pe : Although the US and EU have decided to impose sanctions against Burma, they are in the preparation stage and the real effect has not reached the country. During that time, if only we could build back national unity, I believe the people will not face any difficulty. However, if they hold reconciliation talks only when push becomes a shove, I think the country will suffer more. I think it is the best and correct way if only they could hold reconciliation talks and build back national unity before the sanctions are implemented. [End of recording]

That was the expectations of U Khun Tun Oo and Thakhin Thein Pe. It is evident international pressure need to be increased in order to bring about the expectations. Dr Thaung Tun said the highest level of international pressure is for the UN Security Council to take action. As a first step, he said, this week's UN Security Council meeting was able to discuss the case of Burma at the miscellaneous section and he remarked that it was a very significant development. Dr Thaung Tun continued, for change to occur quickly, international pressure together with the people's activities needs to be coordinated and well balanced.

Dr Thaung Tun : After the US representative to the United Nations spoke at the UN Security Council meeting, British and French UN ambassadors also voiced their opinions. They said when [UN Secretary General's special envoy to Burma] Mr Razali comes to New York the next time, Mr Razali should address the entire UN Security Council [about the situation in Burma]. It means, it is not done as a resolution. However, as Burma's case was never discussed at the UN Security Council, the fact that it was put up and discussed at the UN Security Council was incredible. It shows the international community's concern over the deteriorating situation in Burma, especially some members of the UN Security Council. This shows that if the condition further deteriorates, the matter will not only be discussed at the UN General Assembly but at the UN Security Council as well. Moreover, the countries, especially US, Britain, and France, will be taking the leading role in urging the UN Security Council to take action. How far the pressure will take affect depends on the internal political developments of Burma. That is why, as we mentioned earlier, we see that international pressure together with the people's activities needs to be coordinated and well balanced. We will do as much as we possible can from the outside and we believe the people inside will do as much as they possible can. We believe we can create a possible change depending on the momentum and balance of the two activities.

(BBC monitoring service)