Kanbawza Win

December 12, 2003

The Junta clearly sees the writings on the wall that their enemy Number One, is the pro democracy groups led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. With a huge following wherever she goes, it send cold chills through their spine and comprehend that their days are numbered. In their desperation, they embarked on the attempted assassination at Depayin. But Daw Suu was not among the hundreds that were killed. Instead she gains more strength both nationally and internationally. Hitherto, Japan, which has been quite supportive to the Junta was now adamant and have aligned itself entirely with the West. In the meantime UNGA has passed the resolution to make an independent enquiry on the Depayin incident and this put the Junta between the devil and the deep sea.

To weaken her, she must be separated from the ethnic cause and hence the Junta approach one by one to the ethnic nationalities. The cease-fire groups of Kachin, Wa, Mon and some N. Shan have fallen. Karen, the hope and aspirations of the dissidents who has all the time being the vanguard of standing up against tyrannical chauvinism has agreed to the Junta ‘s term and have entered a ceasefire was the greatest blow tantamount to hit the Achilles’ heel. It will only a matter time before Karenni, Chin, Arakanese and S. Shan will follow suit. The FBC has now supported the road map and probably NCGUB is considering. Khin Nyunt has promised the Rohingyas full Burmese citizens provided they voted for him and the end is clear.

The ethnic nationalities of Burma have seem to forgotten that if it is a national convention, then firstly the people’s representative (NLD led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi) must be included and all ethnic nationalities should not have accepted this invitation, if they are serious about it. Now, to all intent it seems that Khin Nyunt is winning. The other aspect is that the Junta plays a trump card with a logic that in the army there are the doves and the hawks and if the ethnic nationalities did not catch the bait, (attend the convention) the doves led by Khin Nyunt will be defeated and more trouble, when in fact it was a trick, as Khin Nyunt and his group are part and parcel of the military having monolithic unity. Being birds of the same feathers, once, the Junta was able to persuade all the ethnic organizations to participate the Junta is bound to pressure the NLD either take-it-or-leave-it offer.

In the international arena he was able to nudge a wedge between the West and the Asia by playing off the three most populous nations of the world, China, India and Indonesia one another and slyly manage to oust out the Americans in the coming Bangkok Road Map Forum for Democracy Conference. The picture was that there are several countries (Saudi Arabia, China Kuwait, Brunei etc) where American interests are at stake, who are committing gross human rights violations and so why single out Burma? To the Southeast Asian countries the Junta paints the picture of Balkanization, that it is an ethnic cauldron that can easily boil over to them and that if they don’t want to witness another Yugoslavia in their midst, they must support them, for he alone can keep the country together, no matter whatever he does. A sort of Machiavellian theory of “the end justifies the means.” Hence the Bangkok Road Map Forum for Democracy Conference is a forgone conclusion.

The bottom line is that the Asian nations are afraid that if Burma gains democracy, the innovative hard working Burmese farmers will drive the price down of all their agriculture products and Burma would soon be their main competitor as they had done prior to 1962. The Burmese people must be suppressed and the best way is to maintain the Junta. Of course there are well meaning people in Asian countries but their government would not let them support the Burmese democracy movement and the classic example is Singapore which cancelled the public talk organized by Alliance for Reform and Democracy in Asia under the title of “How can Asia help Burma to achieve democracy” at the last minute. It also refused the visa to Dr Tint Swe, the exile government representative. This action seems to confirm the report of several intelligence agencies that 80 percent of the narco-dollars flowing into Burma are through the Singaporean banks. Perhaps what Sam Rainsy said that one dictator helps another dictator seems to be true.

As far as the Diaspora is concerned, the Junta did not need to do much except to send some of the informers and sympathizers to organise the Burmese community and maintain the NCGUB (which they did in Fort Wayne Conference) so that eligible and dedicated intelligentsia will be excluded.

If this is the scenario what is our hope and how do we get out from this quagmire? First what is our philosophy? The Junta is not in the category of a civilize creature and will not let off the power until and unless it was driven out by force (like Iraq and Yugoslavia). But the opposition’s forces are too weak, and so we need a superpower to come to our aid in getting democracy. Second, do we really study the American policy and cater our need for this goal? The current Bush administration has realized its folly of being a unilateralist and will not move anything without the approval of the UN and so the UN became very crucial but here again Kofi Aanan cannot move without the mandate from the Security Council.

What are our weak points? Every body is shouting “Unity” without lifting a finger, let alone the ethnic nationals at the peripheral, just look at those who are now residing in democratic countries e.g. Indianapolis and Fort Wayne where thousands of Burmese dissidents reside. The Burman will make friends with the Burman and the non-Burman with the non-Burman only. Again the Chin and the Mon seldom meet. Living side by side they never create a platform to meet each other and will never take the initiative, e.g. the Chin community inviting the Burman Buddhist and Mon for Christmas while the Burman inviting the Chin and the Mon for Thingyan festivals and so forth, not to mention the trouble of explaining the difference between the Burman and the successive military regimes that have embarked on an ethnic cleansing policy. It never occurs to them to narrow down the different perspectives, and yet we are hypocritically crying Pyidaungsu. If we cannot create the Panglong spirit even among the grass root level our words and actions does not match. Solidarity has to be worked out.

In the political level, what is ENSCC or the NRP doing, not to mention the NDF, now that one after another the ethnic nationalities are jumping into bandwagon of Khin Nyunt? Gone is the Kobenhavn Blue Ribbon Declaration with a grandiose rhetoric of the Second Panglong Conference when not a single pro-democracy activist Burman was invited (I attended the conference and only the miserable NCGUB represented the Myanmar with no one from Free Burma Coalition or any other Myanmar organization).

Hence our first task is to dismantle the NCGUB as they are incapable of organizing the ethnic nationalities and the Diaspora and, unable to plan strategies or implementing and lack of visions. The second task is to select well dedicated, educated, with good records and vision among the Diaspora and ethnic nationalities. This group must have the mandate both from the Burman and the non-Burman. The rest I will not put it on paper, as it is too sensitive and the Junta will get hint of it, but one thing, which I can tell you, is that we want the America to help us but we don’t need a drop GI blood to be shed in Burma. How, can we do it will be demonstrated as I have met with several junior field commanders at the peripherals and all have agree to fight under one command.

Speaking with the VIPs (ministers, politicians, strategic think tanks and policy analyst) in Europe and America I have come to the conclusion that they are supporting NCGUB clique because there is no choice. Their inefficiency has been demonstrated several times in the last one and half decades and there are several examples i.e. when I (as an academic) visited India and talk with the VIPs, at the height of India Pakistan rolling nuclear eyeball, the Indian leaders were quite upset at the silent voice of ASEAN countries. Hence I made a proposal that if we overseas democracy Burmese groups were to support India vis a vis Pakistan will India withdrew their support to the Junta? The answer seems to be affirmative (Salai Zaceulian accompanied me) and I at once send an email to Dr Sein Win but he never cares to reply. So I came back to Europe and verbally relay the message via the Euro Burma Office but no result. Partly, because of the ineptitude of NCGUB, now India is solely on the side of the Junta and even selling arms and ammunition. So also with Bangladesh, when I met Foreign Minister Moshed Khan (accompanied by Robindra Gosh of the Bangladesh Supreme Court) where a suggestion to solve the Rohingyas problem was proposed, even though I knew that during the days of Mujahid (now Rohingyas) their leader has gone to Ali Jinna (founder of Pakistan) asking part of Arakan to incorporate into East Pakistan. But as of now Khin Nyunt has taken the initiative by making Rohingyas the Burmese citizens. In the case of China, how are we going to react and exploit it to our advantage, now that a senior member of Bush’s foreign policy team, James Moriarty, who runs Asian affairs for the National Security Council, has secretly traveled to Taiwan and underscore the change of US policy of China in face of Beijing’s economic growth?

To a well-known strategist it would be hilarious to read the latest declaration of Nagote calling Japan and ASEAN to intercede. I am not arguing the contents but the fact that Japan and ASEAN are separate entities (even though they are having a summit at Tokyo) and as such our policy (including the appeal) towards Japan must be entirely different from ASEAN, who are the champions of Constructive Engagement and have stab the Burmese struggle from the back (partly a wrong protocol). Experts like Dr. Min Nyo of the Burma Office in Japan should be pivotal to have a maximum benefit. Now that Khin Nyunt, is attending the Japan-Asean Commemorative Summit meeting and is schedule to meet Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. He will be appearing on television to charm the Japanese public opinion. If we don’t know how to handle the Japanese policy we are bound to lose Japan to the Junta again as of now he is appealing the Japanese aid. We must realize that Japan is in the course of changing its policy and for the first time since the World War has sent its troops overseas. This explicitly means that Japan is encouraging more on the prevalence of democracy internationally and if we don’t know how to exploit it to our advantage we will missed the golden chance.

My sole idea is first come first serve, i.e. to knock out the Junta by any means is our first priority and once the Junta is finished, then let the politicians and ethnic leaders sort it out in the drawing board, for at least we can speak to each other in frankness without shooting each other or being persecuted. So in tackling the first task will the Diaspora dared to launch a letter writing campaign against NCGUB and its supporters to retire peacefully? The second task is will the seasoned think tanks team be magnanimous enough to recruit the dedicated intellectual activists into their team and incorporate in the strategic council to be more effective? The Third task is to educate the ethnic national leaders that National Convention means the participation of all the people’s representative (including Daw Suu led NLD) couple with the release of all political prisoners without which everybody must refuse to attend Khin Nyunt’s orchestrated national convention. How do we react to these challenges? Are we going to take the advantage of the American feelings, now that US is deliberately left out meaning that there is no place for America in Southeast Asia? It is for the Diaspora and the ethnic nationalities who are apposed to Khin Nyunt’s road map to decide.

Vancouver Canada