MYANMAR REGIME - Only recourse is to negotiate

By NYUNT SHWE
Special to The Japan Times

Will Myanmar (also known as Burma) be banned from the summit meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations next week? That's not likely, but Myanmar's new prime minister, Gen. Khin Nyunt, could utterly lose face unless the regime frees prodemocracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi before the summit convenes.

Suu Kyi has been detained by the regime since state-assisted thugs viciously attacked her political entourage on May 30. For most of the period since then, only U.N. representative Razali Ismail and an officer of the International Commission of the Red Cross have been permitted to see her, while the world wondered about her whereabouts.

Recently she underwent a successful operation in a Yangon private hospital, and was allowed to go home following her discharge on Sept. 26. But she remains under house arrest.

Because of the bloody attack on her entourage and her continued detainment, the U.S. government has toughened trade sanctions and other restrictions on the Myanmar junta, including freezing the assets of soldiers and their lackeys. The measure not only hit the top soldiers but also ordinary people employed in military-related industries. Many of them lost their jobs.

Japan dropped all of its assistance programs, a move that was not well thought out. Even Hansen's disease patients suffered; recently, though, the program related to their care has resumed.

U.S. sanctions also have landed heavily on ordinary people. Although the corrupt rulers can still steal from other sources, the majority of their employees and dependents face much hardship. And it is not easy to find an alternative means of subsistence for the have-nots in such a backward country.

The U.S. government has tightened the screws since 1997. In a Jan. 5, 1999, article for The Nation, Rutgers University professor Josef Silverstein, whose expertise on Myanmar is widely respected, wrote: "So long as the military rulers continue to ignore or refuse to comply with the demands, Burma faces economic measures which, though intended to squeeze the rulers, fall heavily upon the people."

Current sanctions are much more severe than in 1999. Both America and Japan should look for ways of punishing the regime without hurting the ordinary citizenry to such an extent. Outsiders don't really know how hard the lives of Myanmar's people are under the present regime. Consider inflation alone: The unofficial (black market) exchange rate was 60 kyats per $1 in 1991. It was around 1300 kyats before the the latest sanctions, and is 1050 kyats at present.

The only remedy for such a depressing situation lies in reconciliation. Negotiation is the only way. There are a lot of road maps on the table now, but all of them do not address the most fundamental question: How must the regime treat the results of the free and fair 1990 election.

It is not about a national convention, a new election or even a new constitution. The solution is as delicate as it is simple -- genuine dialogue between the highest military authorities and Suu Kyi. The fundamental problem lies between them. The question of ethnicity must come in when the fundamental question is answered. U Kun Tun Oo, the chairperson of the Shan National League for Democracy, and representatives of the United Nationality Alliance have spoken in favor of handling the issue in this way.

The generals should not be so stubborn. At all costs they must protect their pre-election promises. Power sharing is not out of the question, but to reach an honorable arrangement, the generals must initiate negotiation. Both sides should view the Cambodian government of the 1990s as a precedent.

Total amnesty must be given to all the soldiers. As a Buddhist country, Myanmar does not need a truth commission. The people know the truth, and they are capable of forgiving. If unpleasant voices arise, the answer will drift further and further away. Myanmar is capable of tending to its own backyard. The people possess a kind of pride similar to the Japanese spirit of Bushido (in which a samurai would continue to pick this teeth even though he was starving). The real problem lies with their will.

ASEAN's expulsion of Myanmar will not relax the grip of the stubborn military regime until the generals realize how their actions have affected innocent people. The best thing the opposition can do is to show their unwavering, loving kindness, while strengthening their political organization. The Suu Kyi generation and the next must prepare to take a bigger role. Depending on Suu Kyi alone won't work for their long journey.

Recently, Myanmar's foreign minister, U Win Aung, spoke at the U.N. General Assembly, asserting that the military council ruling Myanmar has the "political will" to effect a smooth transition to democracy.

In reality, though, all National League for Democracy offices across the country have been shut, with democratically elected parliamentary members and activists arrested and hunted. Alas, even victims who survived the vicious attack by government supporters have been imprisoned, while the murderers and attackers are still protected. Some have even been awarded prizes for their cooperation.

Thus most people wonder whether the regime can perform a smooth transition to democracy after putting so many democracy supporters in prison.

Nyunt Shwe is a freelance journalist who has resided in Tokyo since 1991. He is a former elected Myanmar township leader of the National League for Democracy headed by Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Japan Times: Oct. 4, 2003
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